Leaving California Pays Off: Study Shows Big Housing Savings and Higher Homeownership for Movers
A California Policy Lab study at UC Berkeley finds that Californians who move out of state save an average $672 monthly on housing and are 48% more likely to become homeowners within seven years, highlighting persistent affordability pressures in California.
- Average housing savings: Movers out of California cut monthly housing costs by $672 on average (from $2,376 to $1,705) — Fox Business.
- Renter benefits: Renters who left saw rents fall about 30%, saving roughly $631 a month — Fox Business.
- Homebuyer advantages: Median home prices in destination neighborhoods were about $396,000 lower — ~48% less than California neighborhoods — enabling higher homeownership rates (Fox Business).
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What the California Policy Lab study measured
The study tracks the same households anonymously from 2016 through 2025. It tallied monthly housing costs — including mortgage or rent payments, utilities, property taxes and insurance — and compared neighborhood-level averages before and after moves. The lab’s approach produces a measurable gap in affordability for those who leave California. (Source: Fox Business.)
Savings by housing type
- Renters: Those who left California cut monthly rent by about $631, a drop of roughly 30% on average. These savings can free cash for savings, family expenses, or a down payment. (Source: Fox Business.)
- Homeowners/movers buying: Median home prices in destination neighborhoods were about $396,000 lower than in the California neighborhoods people left, translating into lower mortgage payments and easier access to homeownership. (Source: Fox Business.)
Homeownership outcomes
The study documents a clear link between moving out of California and later homeownership. In destination neighborhoods, 60% of residents own their homes compared with 53% in the neighborhoods migrants left. Over seven years, people who moved out of California were 48% more likely to own a home (an 11 percentage point rise). By contrast, people who moved into California became homeowners at a smaller increase — 27% more likely (a 6 percentage point rise). (Sources: Fox Business; California Policy Lab presentation.)
“Lower prices and lower monthly housing costs where people relocate appear to be key drivers of higher homeownership for out‑migrants.”
Within-state moves and moves into California
Not all moves reduce costs. People who moved within California saw little or no decline: average monthly housing costs edged up from $2,263 to $2,277. By contrast, people moving into California from other states faced big increases: their average monthly housing went from $1,754 before the move to $2,418 after moving to California. These shifts explain why leaving the state often yields better affordability and a faster path to homeownership. (Source: Fox Business.)
Where Californians go
Between 2016 and 2025, the largest net inflows from California per 10,000 residents went to nearby Western states:
- Nevada: net gain of 81 people per 10,000 annually from California. (Source: Fox Business.)
- Idaho: net gain of 64 per 10,000.
- Oregon: net gain of 37 per 10,000.
- Arizona: net gain of 36 per 10,000.
- Other destinations: Texas 11 per 10,000, Tennessee 13, Florida 4 (smaller net inflows). (Source: Fox Business.)
Population shifts at the county level
County-level data highlight the scale of outflows. For example, in Sacramento County from 2016 through 2025, about 269,600 people left California while 198,500 moved in from other states — a net loss of roughly 71,100 residents. Researchers note that producing more housing could reduce upward pressure on prices and make it easier for people to live and work in California. (Source: California Policy Lab presentation.)
Policy context and practical takeaways
Key policy and practical implications:
- Economic: Large moves from high-cost states shift spending to destination regions, boosting local economies and potentially creating jobs.
- Political: Migration can change state tax bases and budgets; states gaining homeowners may see a more stable revenue stream.
- Social: Influxes of families can raise school enrollments and demand for infrastructure; increased homeownership can strengthen civic ties.
- Practical for individuals: Compare full monthly housing costs — rent or mortgage, utilities, taxes, and insurance — not just headline prices when weighing a move.
- Practical for policymakers: Policies that lower the cost of building homes, streamline approvals, and reduce regulatory barriers can help more residents own homes and stabilize labor markets.
Sources and transparency
This article summarizes the California Policy Lab’s analysis as presented publicly and as reported in media. Key sources include:
- Fox Business: “Californians who move away typically saving hundreds a month on housing costs”
- California Policy Lab presentation (video)
Reporting notes
Figures and migration patterns come from media coverage and the lab’s public presentation. The core numbers cited above are drawn from the media summary and the California Policy Lab presentation: Fox Business and the California Policy Lab presentation.
For readers: Lower housing costs can free up paychecks for other goods, increase savings and expand access to homeownership — outcomes the study ties to migration away from California.
