Turning Point USA straw poll crowns Vice President JD Vance as dominant 2028 GOP choice; TPUSA leadership pledges backing
Vice President JD Vance dominated Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest straw poll in Phoenix (Dec. 18–21, 2025), drawing roughly 84% support from attendees, while TPUSA CEO Erika Kirk publicly endorsed him and pledged organizational backing for a potential 2028 bid.
- Large straw-poll margin: Vance drew ~84% of attendee support at AmericaFest, a dominant showing reported across multiple outlets.
- Organizational endorsement: TPUSA CEO Erika Kirk publicly endorsed Vance and pledged to direct TPUSA resources toward early-state efforts.
- Methodological caveats: Straw polls reflect a self-selecting attendee base and are not scientific or nationally representative.
- Unverified tallies: Large raw counts attributed to specific attendee threat responses were not corroborated by primary coverage and remain unverified.
The AmericaFest straw poll: numbers and variation
What was reported: Multiple outlets covering Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest in Phoenix described a landslide in favor of JD Vance, with one widely cited figure putting his support at 84.2% and other reports listing a slightly lower figure at 82.6%. Several local affiliates and TPUSA producers noted the margin exceeded TPUSA’s 2023 straw poll for Donald Trump.
Trailing finishers were consistently in the single digits: Ron DeSantis was reported between roughly 7.6% and 2.9% across accounts, with Vivek Ramaswamy (about 5.8%) and Marco Rubio (about 4.8%) among others in low single digits. Such variation is common in conference straw-poll reporting when figures are relayed by producers and reporters rather than released as an independent dataset.
Turning Point USA endorsement: Erika Kirk steps forward
Public pledge: At AmericaFest, TPUSA CEO Erika Kirk — identified in coverage as a close friend of the late Charlie Kirk — publicly endorsed JD Vance and pledged the organization’s resources to support a potential 2028 campaign. Event producers and organizers told reporters they plan to focus TPUSA efforts in early primary states should Vance run.
“Organizers described the endorsement as an organizational pivot,” with TPUSA’s national campus reach positioned to mobilize volunteers and local networks in key early states.
Other polls, context and Vance’s response
Beyond AmericaFest, a December hypothetical early-state model from AtlasIntel (reported in coverage) gave Vance 47% in that scenario, ahead of Marco Rubio (23%) and Ron DeSantis (13%), suggesting the conference result may coincide with pockets of broader enthusiasm among certain GOP voters. Still, methodologies vary and conference attendees represent a specific movement-aligned cohort.
Vance’s position: Vance has not declared a 2028 campaign. Coverage indicates he emphasized focus on the 2026 midterms and said he would consult with President Trump before making any decision; a source close to Vance thanked TPUSA for the support while reiterating an immediate emphasis on congressional races.
Methodology cautions: what a straw poll means
Straw polls capture the views of a self-selecting group of attendees and are not scientific or nationally representative. TPUSA’s AmericaFest draws activists and young conservatives who tend to back movement-aligned candidates. Producers and reporting framed the outcome as reflective of organizational base enthusiasm and early momentum — not a definitive national verdict.
Notably, several widely circulated raw tallies attributed to attendee responses on top national threats (for example, large numbers assigned to “radical Islam”, “socialism and Marxism”, “mass migration”, and “economy and affordability”) were not published by major outlets covering the straw poll and were not found in official TPUSA releases; those tallies remain unverified in public reporting.
Implications for the United States of America
Political consequences: TPUSA’s public support and attendee enthusiasm provide early organizational advantages to Vance among conservative activists, especially younger campus conservatives; directed efforts in early states could translate into volunteer operations, early fundraising and local endorsements.
Party dynamics: A formal TPUSA backing may shift GOP primary dynamics by consolidating movement-conservative support and pressuring rivals to seek competing institutional allies.
Electoral strategy: TPUSA’s networks could rapidly mobilize grassroots turnout and messaging in favorable contexts, but conference momentum does not guarantee broader appeal with independents, suburban voters or non-TPUSA Republican constituencies.
Policy emphasis: Reported attendee concerns at AmericaFest point to likely emphasis on immigration, national security and economic affordability in messaging tied to Vance and allied conservatives — though specific large threat-response tallies remain unverified.
Reporting notes and sources
This article synthesizes multiple reports from local television affiliates and national coverage of Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest. Key coverage and sources include:
- Evrimagaci report on TPUSA and Vance
- ABC6 coverage of AmericaFest straw poll
- KATV report on the straw poll
- KFOX affiliate coverage
- Fox Baltimore coverage
- YouTube video of AmericaFest coverage
- Florida Politics report on endorsement and state effects
Reporting note: Coverage of AmericaFest emphasized the nominee straw poll and TPUSA’s endorsement; specific large raw tallies attributed to attendee answers on top national threats were not found in primary news reports and remain unverified in public coverage.
Contact & corrections: Reporters and readers should consult the primary sources above for original context and follow-up statements from TPUSA and event producers for any updates to the raw data or official releases.
