NOAA Predicts Below-Average 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season as Strong El Niño Looms
NOAA predicts a below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season with 8–14 named storms, driven largely by a developing El Niño expected to suppress tropical activity. Officials warned the risk of major hurricanes remains and urged continued preparedness.
- Forecast: NOAA calls for 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes and 1–3 major hurricanes — see the NOAA briefing video.
- Confidence: NOAA assigns about 70% confidence to its range and a 55% chance the season will be below normal (see the NOAA briefing video).
- Driver: A developing El Niño is expected to increase wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and suppress storm formation despite many areas of above-average sea surface temperatures (NOAA ENSO background).
NOAA’s forecast and the role of El Niño
NOAA released its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Thursday. Forecasters said a developing El Niño — a natural warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean — is expected to be the dominant factor tilting this season toward below-average activity. El Niño changes global wind patterns and usually adds wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear tends to tear apart nascent storms and make it harder for hurricanes to form and strengthen (NOAA ENSO guide; NOAA primer).
NOAA noted that Atlantic sea surface temperatures are above average in many places — and warm water normally fuels stronger storms. But forecasters said atmospheric effects from El Niño are likely to override that extra heat this year, which is why NOAA projects fewer storms than an average season (NOAA briefing video).
How the forecast compares to other outlooks
NOAA’s outlook aligns with Colorado State University’s April forecast, which called for 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes — CSU’s lowest storm forecast since 2019. CSU said its outlook reflects the growing likelihood of a strong El Niño becoming the main driver of tropical weather this season. Both agencies reach similar conclusions though their counts differ slightly (Coverage and CSU reference).
NOAA also expects the eastern Pacific basin to be more active than normal, a common El Niño outcome that tends to shift storm-favorable conditions eastward (NOAA ENSO background; NOAA briefing video).
Forecast confidence and limits
NOAA frames its outlook as probabilistic: about 70% confidence in the predicted range of storms and a 55% chance the season will be below normal. Forecasters stressed the timing of El Niño’s development will be critical. If El Niño strengthens early in summer, suppression during the peak months (August–October) will likely be stronger; if later, the Atlantic could still see favorable windows for storm formation (NOAA briefing; ENSO strength discussion).
“Below average does not mean no risk.” NOAA reminded the public that a single strong storm can cause catastrophic damage if it makes landfall in a populated area, and that powerful storms often produce most of a season’s damage.
Why El Niño matters for the United States
El Niño is a phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During El Niño, warmer-than-average waters in the central and eastern Pacific change atmospheric circulation, increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and steering more tropical development into the eastern Pacific. Those shifts can alter where storms form and how they behave and can affect U.S. rainfall and temperature patterns (NOAA ENSO background; NOAA/NWS explanation).
Timing matters: if El Niño takes hold before the peak months, Atlantic suppression will be stronger; if it arrives late or weakens, suppression may be weaker. That uncertainty is why NOAA issues ranges instead of exact counts (NOAA briefing video).
What NOAA is telling officials and the public
Government forecasters urged officials, property owners and emergency managers not to let a below-average forecast lower their guard. Even quieter seasons can produce landfalling hurricanes. Local preparedness — updating evacuation plans, reviewing building codes, checking flood insurance and ensuring fuel supplies and critical services — remains essential. NOAA’s message is consistent: preparedness pays off, even when fewer storms are expected (NOAA briefing video).
Forecasts also carry economic consequences. Fewer storms can reduce short-term pressure on disaster response budgets and supply chains, but insurers, utilities and coastal communities still face the financial risk of a single major landfall. Balanced planning should account for both lower overall storm counts and the real chance of concentrated impacts (NOAA ENSO background).
Implications for the United States
Economic impact: A below-average season could ease some pressure on coastal businesses, tourists and shipping during 2026. Fewer storms may reduce the likelihood of widespread disruptions to ports and coastal supply chains, but local economies remain vulnerable to a single costly landfall (NOAA briefing video).
Political consequences: A quieter season may reduce immediate demand for emergency spending, potentially freeing funds for resilience projects. Officials are cautioned not to delay infrastructure upgrades, floodplain management or investment in coastal defenses based on a single forecast year (NOAA ENSO background).
Social effects: Communities along the Gulf and East Coasts should keep evacuation plans and supply caches updated. Public messaging should stress that fewer storms overall does not eliminate local risk; residents who have delayed repairs or insurance renewals should act now (NOAA briefing video).
Practical applications for residents
- Verify flood and wind insurance and review evacuation maps.
- Prepare emergency kits and inspect roofs, trim trees and secure loose outdoor items.
- Local officials should check fuel supplies and critical infrastructure readiness ahead of peak months.
